Investor optimism over AI companies and expectations of interest rate cuts helped propel stocks last week. The S&P 500, the Dow, and the NASDAQ reached record highs despite the government shutdown, which caused delays in the release of key economic data (see below). In addition to surging AI stocks, major tech and chip stocks also drove the market. Information technology and health care led the market sectors, while energy showed weakness due to slumping crude oil prices. Ten-year Treasury yields eased slightly during the week, partially due to uncertainty over the employment sector. Bearish crude oil prices were dragged lower by expectations of a production increase by OPEC+.
Stock Market Indexes
|
Market/Index
|
2024 Close
|
Prior Week
|
As of 10/3
|
Weekly Change
|
YTD Change
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
DJIA
|
42,544.22
|
46,247.29
|
46,758.28
|
1.10%
|
9.91%
|
|
NASDAQ
|
19,310.79
|
22,484.07
|
22,780.51
|
1.32%
|
17.97%
|
|
S&P 500
|
5,881.63
|
6,643.70
|
6,715.79
|
1.09%
|
14.18%
|
|
Russell 2000
|
2,230.16
|
2,434.32
|
2,476.18
|
1.72%
|
11.03%
|
|
Global Dow
|
4,863.01
|
5,901.84
|
5,978.91
|
1.31%
|
22.95%
|
|
fed. funds target rate
|
4.25%-4.50%
|
4.00%-4.25%
|
4.00%-4.25%
|
0 bps
|
-25 bps
|
|
10-year Treasuries
|
4.57%
|
4.18%
|
4.11%
|
-7 bps
|
-46 bps
|
|
US Dollar-DXY
|
108.44
|
98.14
|
97.71
|
-0.44%
|
-9.89%
|
|
Crude Oil-CL=F
|
$71.76
|
$65.32
|
$60.84
|
-6.86%
|
-15.22%
|
|
Gold-GC=F
|
$2,638.50
|
$3,797.30
|
$3,909.90
|
2.97%
|
48.19%
|
Chart reflects price changes, not total return. Because it does not include dividends or splits, it should not be used to benchmark performance of specific investments.
Last Week's Economic News
- Ordinarily the Bureau of Labor Statistics would release the jobs data for September and the weekly unemployment statistics. However, that information is unavailable due to the government shutdown.
- The number of job openings was unchanged at 7.2 million in August. The number of job openings for July was revised up by 27,000 to 7.2 million. In August, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.1 million. Within separations, both quits (3.1 million), and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) were little changed.
- Manufacturing expanded in September but at a slower pace than in the previous month. The S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index™ registered 52.0 in September, down from 53.0 in August. Although up for a ninth successive month, new orders rose in September only modestly and at a pace below the survey average. Exports were a source of demand weakness, falling overall for a third month in a row. Tariffs were reported to have weighed on export sales, especially to Canada and Mexico.
- Similar to the manufacturing sector, growth in the services sector signaled a weaker expansion of business activity in September. Slower growth was linked to a softer expansion of new work despite an improvement in foreign demand for the first time in six months. On the price front, cost pressures remained elevated, driven principally by tariffs and higher salary payments, with increases passed on to purchasers. The S&P Global US Services PMI® Business Activity Index™ recorded 54.2 in September, down from 54.5 in August but above the 50.0 no-change mark that separates growth from contraction.
- The national average retail price for regular gasoline was $3.118 per gallon on September 29, $0.055 per gallon below the prior week's price and $0.061 per gallon less than a year ago. Also, as of September 29, the East Coast price decreased $0.047 to $2.983 per gallon; the Midwest price declined $0.080 to $2.928 per gallon; the Gulf Coast price fell $0.044 to $2.672 per gallon; the Rocky Mountain price decreased $0.074 to $3.110 per gallon; and the West Coast price dipped $0.034 to $4.238 per gallon.
Eye on the Week Ahead
There isn't a great deal of economic data this week. However, investors likely will be looking ahead to next week when the latest Consumer Price Index is released.
Data sources: Economic: Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (unemployment, inflation); U.S. Department of Commerce (GDP, corporate profits, retail sales, housing); S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index (home prices); Institute for Supply Management (manufacturing/services). Performance: Based on data reported in WSJ Market Data Center (indexes); U.S. Treasury (Treasury yields); U.S. Energy Information Administration/Bloomberg.com Market Data (oil spot price, WTI, Cushing, OK); www.goldprice.org (spot gold/silver); Oanda/FX Street (currency exchange rates).
News items are based on reports from multiple commonly available international news sources (i.e., wire services) and are independently verified when necessary with secondary sources such as government agencies, corporate press releases, or trade organizations. All information is based on sources deemed reliable, but no warranty or guarantee is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any securities, and should not be relied on as financial advice. Forecasts are based on current conditions, subject to change, and may not come to pass. U.S. Treasury securities are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. The principal value of Treasury securities and other bonds fluctuates with market conditions. Bonds are subject to inflation, interest-rate, and credit risks. As interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall. A bond sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal, and there can be no guarantee that any investing strategy will be successful.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted index composed of 30 widely traded blue-chip U.S. common stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 largest, publicly traded companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-value weighted index of all common stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The Russell 2000 is a market-cap weighted index composed of 2,000 U.S. small-cap common stocks. The Global Dow is an equally weighted index of 150 widely traded blue-chip common stocks worldwide. The U.S. Dollar Index is a geometrically weighted index of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to six foreign currencies. Market indexes listed are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.
